Budgets
What did Spring Forecast 2026 forecast, and what happened?
At Spring Forecast 2026 on 3 March 2026, the OBR forecast borrowing of £115.5bn for the year ahead, 2026-27. That year has not ended yet.
OBR data as of March 2026 · loaded 28 October 2026.
- Chancellor
- Rachel Reeves
- Government
- Labour
- Type
- Statement
- Date
- 3 March 2026
Not yet due
2026-27 has not ended, so there is no outturn to compare yet. See Data health.
Fiscal rules at this event
Current budget
Target: Current budget in balance or surplus
Target year: 2029-30
Outcome: Not assessed. The outcome for Current budget has not been assessed yet.
Charter for Budget Responsibility, Autumn 2024Net financial debt
Target: Public sector net financial liabilities falling as a share of GDP
Target year: 2029-30
Outcome: Not assessed. The outcome for Net financial debt has not been assessed yet.
Charter for Budget Responsibility, Autumn 2024
Largest policy measures
A positive figure raises money. A negative figure costs money. That is the OBR policy measures database sign: a yield is positive and a cost is negative.
| Measure | Category | 2027-28, £m |
|---|---|---|
| Fund agreement with EU to join Erasmus+ in 20274 | PSCE in RDEL | −£592m |
| Pillar 2 rules: UK implementation of internationally agreed changes to the global minimum tax from 1 January 2026 | Corporation tax (onshore) | −£431m |
| Pillar 2 rules: UK implementation of internationally agreed changes to the global minimum tax from 1 January 2026 | Multinational top-up tax | −£212m |
| Local Government: Provide financial support to local authorities equal to 90% of the accumulated deficits from Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG) and SEND funding and the application of the Barnett formula to the financial support | Interest and dividend receipts | £148m |
| Local Government: Provide financial support to local authorities equal to 90% of the accumulated deficits from Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG) and SEND funding and the application of the Barnett formula to the financial support | Locally-financed current expenditure | −£148m |
| Business rates: 15% relief for pubs and live music venues in 2026-27, followed by real terms freeze in 2027-28 & 2028-29 | Business rates | −£141m |
| Business Rates Retention: Increase in safety net payments to LAs and fall in levy receipts following the BRR reset in 2026-27 | Locally-financed current expenditure | −£140m |
| Council Tax Flexibility: Allow 7 local authorities, 6 police authorities and 1 fire and rescue authority to raise council tax above referendum principles for 2026-27 as part of the Exceptional Financial Support process and remove referendum principles for 5 Inner London Boroughs plus Windsor and Maidenhead in 2027-28 and 2028-29 | Council Tax | £137m |
| Council Tax Flexibility: Allow 7 local authorities, 6 police authorities and 1 fire and rescue authority to raise council tax above referendum principles for 2026-27 as part of the Exceptional Financial Support process and remove referendum principles for 5 Inner London Boroughs plus Windsor and Maidenhead in 2027-28 and 2028-29 | Locally-financed current expenditure | −£137m |
| Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief: Increase the allowance for 100% relief from £1 million to £2.5 million from 6 April 2026 | Inheritance tax | −£135m |
How to read these comparisons
- Outturn figures are revised by the ONS for years after the event. Each difference uses the ONS release shown in Sources, and is updated when the ONS revises.
- Changes to how things are classified, such as the treatment of student loans or the Bank of England's schemes, can move borrowing and debt without any change in policy. These are marked "Basis changed".
- Each forecast assumes the policies in place at the time. Later policy changes are one reason outturns differ.
- Large shocks, such as the pandemic and the energy price rise, account for many of the biggest differences. A forecast difference is not a broken promise.